Diana Felipe, a student from Utah State University, worked with Dr. Elizabeth M. Warburton to understand spatiotemporal dynamics of chronic wasting disease in deer.
Abstract: Chronic Wasting Disease (CWD) is a 100% fatal neurodegenerative disease found in White-tailed deer and other cervid species. CWD is caused by prions which can be transmitted directly and indirectly. Due to the prions’ ability to remain in the environment for years and hosts remaining asymptomatic for approximately one year, CWD transmission has been challenging to investigate. This study conducted ordinary kriging and developed a generalized additive model (GAM) with overall prevalence across sites as the response variable as well as a binary logistic GAM on CWD status of individual deer at a three-site study area in Northwest Arkansas. Independent variables for the prevalence GAM included deer density, human density, elevation, land cover type, and distance from the Buffalo River. In addition to these, the logistic GAM included sex and estimated age. Telemetry, camera, and capture mark-recapture data were used in the analyses. We concluded that spatial autocorrelation was present in winter prevalence across the entire study area and female prevalence at Site 2. We determined that deer density, elevation, and land cover type were significant predictors of overall prevalence. This was also true for CWD status with estimated age as an additional important predictor. Finally, we created an R Shiny App to generate interactive maps of host CWD status at trap sites for deer of different sexes across seasons and years. These results support management of deer populations, especially individuals undergoing post-natal dispersal (~2 years of age). Additionally, our ShinyApp can help wildlife managers in Northwest Arkansas understand infection trends.
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